Top 10 breakout candidates at WC
ESPN INSIDER
The World Cup is not only a time for countries to make a big splash in the global football community, but also a chance for individual players to break out and raise their profile on the biggest stage. At the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, then-under-the-radar players such as Mexico's Javier Hernandez, Chile's Alexis Sanchez and Japan's Keisuke Honda made names for themselves by showcasing their skills and potential.
So who could be a breakout star in Brazil? In assembling my Top 10 breakout players to watch at the 2014 World Cup, I used the following guidelines:
• The candidate pool is limited to players who have yet to earn significant recognition for their performance or potential, and steers away from players who have made names for themselves, such as France's Paul Pogba and Chile's Arturo Vidal.
• The list is based on players who will likely see major minutes and opportunity in Brazil -- i.e., those who will be called upon to shoulder more of a burden than others, based on surrounding talent, while discounting those caught in a logjam of talent on World Cup-contending teams like Spain and Germany.
• Players have been selected based on recent performance, including play from the 2013-14 club season and the last year of World Cup qualifying.
Based subjectively on the above criteria and objectively on statistical performance from the past year of play, here are 10 players who I think are poised to make names for themselves at the 2014 World Cup.
1. Blaise Matuidi, France (Club: Paris Saint-Germain)
Matuidi is a known commodity within France, yet his status in European football has not yet reached the point that it fully deserves. While Pogba is the name that many will focus on in the French midfield, it was Matuidi's defensive efforts that made the difference for a French team that scored just 18 goals throughout the UEFA World Cup qualifying campaign (which ranked 18th in region).
In World Cup qualifying, Matuidi led France with 2.5 tackles per 90 minutes and 4.0 interceptions per 90 minutes (minimum five appearances). The holding midfielder held the same level of importance with Paris Saint-Germain, leading the team in tackles while completing 90.7 percent of his total pass attempts (third-highest rate on team). His ability to defend and distribute should allow attacking players like Franck Ribery and Olivier Giroud more opportunities to pressure the opponent's goal.
2. James Rodriguez, Colombia (Monaco)
As striker Radamel Falcao works diligently to return in time for the tournament, his Monaco teammate Rodriguez will be relied on more to carry the expectations of this talented Columbia team. Primarily a playmaking midfielder, Rodriguez ranked second on Monaco with nine goals in the 2013-14 season, and his team-high 90 shot attempts amounted to 39 more than the next Monaco player.
Rodriguez also led Monaco with 2.8 chances created per 90 minutes, and as Colombia's playmaker he led all CONMEBOL players with 43 total chances created in World Cup qualifying. Rodriguez can also defend -- he ranked fourth on Colombia with 26 tackles -- and his good work on that side of the ball will make him a brighter star if Colombia can advance to the later rounds.
3. Xherdan Shaqiri, Switzerland (Bayern Munich)
Shaqiri is a prime example of a skilled player on a major club who is poised to break out based on the critical role he will play for his country. In the 2013-14 Bundesliga season, Shaqiri ranked third on Bayern with 3.2 shots per 90 minutes in 17 appearances and second with 2.8 chances created per 90 minutes.
In roughly that same time frame, Shaqiri led Switzerland in virtually every attacking category in UEFA World Cup qualifying, including shots, shots on target, chances created and take-ons. This is evidence that the 22-year-old is going to need a breakout performance in order for Switzerland to advance to the later rounds of the tournament, and based on the locations of Shaqiri's take-ons for both club and country, it is clear that he is capable of attacking opponents from all areas of the attacking third.
ESPN Stats & Information Heat map of Xherdan Shaqiri's take-ons in 2013-14 Bundesliga season, left, and those with Switzerland in 2014 World Cup qualifying, right.
Just three of Switzerland's 17 goals in World Cup qualifying came from its forward line, and Shaqiri will likely need help from Nurnberg striker Josip Drmic in the attack. But Shaqiri's ability to create chances for both himself and others will define Switzerland's World Cup tournament as it hopes to return to the round of 16 for the first time since 2006.
4. Luiz Gustavo, Brazil (Wolfsburg)
Gustavo had many suitors after a strong performance in the 2013 Confederations Cup, and many expected the then-Bayern Munich midfielder to leave for another big club. Instead, Gustavo opted for Wolfsburg, and as a holding midfielder he anchored the defense of a team that went from an 11th-place finish in the 2012-13 Bundesliga campaign to a fifth-place finish (and subsequent Europa League berth) in 2013-14.
Gustavo led that Wolfsburg team with 2.7 tackles per 90 minutes, while also showing good ball control with 2.4 take-ons per 90 minutes and an 86 percent pass completion rate from his holding midfield role. A performance similar to his 2013 Confederations Cup final, where Gustavo led Brazil with four interceptions and completed 93 percent of his passes against Spain, could renew interest from major clubs during the August transfer window.
5. Ciro Immobile, Italy (Torino)
Immobile burst onto the scene this season by leading Serie A with 22 goals, and since he did not appear in World Cup qualifying for Italy, this summer will be a tremendous opportunity for the 24-year-old to prove that he can score at all levels.
Immobile earns extra credit for the fact that none of his 22 goals in Serie A came from penalties, and the striker ranked seventh in the league in total touches in the opponent's penalty area. Those attacking instincts should help an Italian team that scored just 19 goals in World Cup qualifying (13th most in UEFA), and Immobile could become a major summer transfer target if he can carry his club form over to the 2014 World Cup.
6. Joao Moutinho, Portugal (Monaco)
It is easy to lose sight of Moutinho based on the attention that Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo receives, but Moutinho led all players throughout UEFA World Cup qualifying with 10 assists, while also leading the region with 50 total chances created. Four of Moutinho's 10 assists went to Ronaldo, and the connection between these players will likely factor into Moutinho raising his profile throughout the tournament.
Similarly, Moutinho ranked second on Monaco with eight assists and 1.9 chances created per 90 minutes in the 2013-14 season, and even though the playmaking midfielder is not known for his goal-scoring prowess, his ability to move the ball and create chances for others should make him stand out in all of Portugal's games this summer.
7. Axel Witsel, Belgium (Zenit St. Petersburg)
It is no secret that Belgium is loaded with individual talent, but the player poised to make a name for himself on this team may be Zenit St. Petersburg midfielder Axel Witsel. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and Witsel were the only players to feature in every minute of the team's 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign.
Witsel was integral in Belgium's possession throughout qualifying, ranking fourth on the team with 67 touches per 90 minutes, and leading the team with 53 completed passes per 90 minutes throughout the 10-game qualification process. As a holding midfielder, Witsel ranked third on Zenit with 15 interceptions through the UEFA Champions League group stages, and he led the team with 63 completed passes per 90 minutes, so his impact as a linking player between Belgium's back and forward lines should earn him extra attention as the tournament progresses into the later stages.
8. Vedad Ibisevic, Bosnia-Herzegovina (Stuttgart)
Ibisevic does not have nearly the name recognition of fellow Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko, but Ibisevic's ability to score goals on both a domestic and international level over the past 18 months puts him in position to earn more attention this summer.
ESPN Stats & Information Chart of Vedad Ibisevic's shots (blue dots) and goals (soccer balls) with Stuttgart in 2013-14 season, left, and those with Bosnia in 2014 World Cup qualifying, right.
Ibisevic is a strong presence in front of goal, proving it with eight goals in World Cup qualifying and a club-high 10 goals for Stuttgart in the 2013-14 Bundesliga campaign. Moreover, his 13 percent shot increase in the opponent's penalty area from the 2012-13 Bundesliga campaign to this season indicate the striker is poised for more goal-scoring opportunities, and he will likely find them this summer while paired next to a player of Dzeko's caliber.
9. Shinji Okazaki, Japan (Mainz)
Okazaki's 15 goals in the Bundesliga this season were a dramatic improvement over the one goal he scored in 25 appearances with Stuttgart in 2012-13, and the Japanese striker led his Mainz teammates with 1.3 shots on target per 90 minutes in the 2013-14 Bundesliga campaign.
More importantly, Okazaki led his region with eight goals in World Cup qualifying and was instrumental in Japan leading the region with 16 goals throughout the process. Okazaki also led Japan with two goals in the 2013 Confederations Cup, and together with Manchester United midfielder Shinji Kagawa and AC Milan midfielder Keisuke Honda, the Japanese striker will be a pivotal piece to the team's success.
10. Jefferson Montero, Ecuador (Morelia)
Montero has been on loan stints with Villarreal, Levante and Betis since joining Morelia in 2012, but in that time he has not been able to find the right club opportunity. This summer could change Montero's outlook, as the winger ranked third in the 2014 Liga MX Clausura in take-ons; he is starting to generate more European attention from teams looking for a wide player with pace.
Montero provided three goals in 13 appearances in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, and his 10.1 take-ons per 90 minutes led all players throughout the region, so there is definitely potential for the Ecuador winger to raise his stock if the team can advance to the later rounds.
Five honorable mentions (not in any order): Eduardo Vargas, Chile (Valencia); Raphael Varane, France (Real Madrid); Giovani dos Santos, Mexico (Villarreal); Juan Guillermo Cuadrado, Colombia (Fiorentina); Vincent Aboubakar, Cameroon (Lorient)
ESPN INSIDER
The World Cup is not only a time for countries to make a big splash in the global football community, but also a chance for individual players to break out and raise their profile on the biggest stage. At the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, then-under-the-radar players such as Mexico's Javier Hernandez, Chile's Alexis Sanchez and Japan's Keisuke Honda made names for themselves by showcasing their skills and potential.
So who could be a breakout star in Brazil? In assembling my Top 10 breakout players to watch at the 2014 World Cup, I used the following guidelines:
• The candidate pool is limited to players who have yet to earn significant recognition for their performance or potential, and steers away from players who have made names for themselves, such as France's Paul Pogba and Chile's Arturo Vidal.
• The list is based on players who will likely see major minutes and opportunity in Brazil -- i.e., those who will be called upon to shoulder more of a burden than others, based on surrounding talent, while discounting those caught in a logjam of talent on World Cup-contending teams like Spain and Germany.
• Players have been selected based on recent performance, including play from the 2013-14 club season and the last year of World Cup qualifying.
Based subjectively on the above criteria and objectively on statistical performance from the past year of play, here are 10 players who I think are poised to make names for themselves at the 2014 World Cup.
1. Blaise Matuidi, France (Club: Paris Saint-Germain)
Matuidi is a known commodity within France, yet his status in European football has not yet reached the point that it fully deserves. While Pogba is the name that many will focus on in the French midfield, it was Matuidi's defensive efforts that made the difference for a French team that scored just 18 goals throughout the UEFA World Cup qualifying campaign (which ranked 18th in region).
In World Cup qualifying, Matuidi led France with 2.5 tackles per 90 minutes and 4.0 interceptions per 90 minutes (minimum five appearances). The holding midfielder held the same level of importance with Paris Saint-Germain, leading the team in tackles while completing 90.7 percent of his total pass attempts (third-highest rate on team). His ability to defend and distribute should allow attacking players like Franck Ribery and Olivier Giroud more opportunities to pressure the opponent's goal.
2. James Rodriguez, Colombia (Monaco)
As striker Radamel Falcao works diligently to return in time for the tournament, his Monaco teammate Rodriguez will be relied on more to carry the expectations of this talented Columbia team. Primarily a playmaking midfielder, Rodriguez ranked second on Monaco with nine goals in the 2013-14 season, and his team-high 90 shot attempts amounted to 39 more than the next Monaco player.
Rodriguez also led Monaco with 2.8 chances created per 90 minutes, and as Colombia's playmaker he led all CONMEBOL players with 43 total chances created in World Cup qualifying. Rodriguez can also defend -- he ranked fourth on Colombia with 26 tackles -- and his good work on that side of the ball will make him a brighter star if Colombia can advance to the later rounds.
3. Xherdan Shaqiri, Switzerland (Bayern Munich)
Shaqiri is a prime example of a skilled player on a major club who is poised to break out based on the critical role he will play for his country. In the 2013-14 Bundesliga season, Shaqiri ranked third on Bayern with 3.2 shots per 90 minutes in 17 appearances and second with 2.8 chances created per 90 minutes.
In roughly that same time frame, Shaqiri led Switzerland in virtually every attacking category in UEFA World Cup qualifying, including shots, shots on target, chances created and take-ons. This is evidence that the 22-year-old is going to need a breakout performance in order for Switzerland to advance to the later rounds of the tournament, and based on the locations of Shaqiri's take-ons for both club and country, it is clear that he is capable of attacking opponents from all areas of the attacking third.
Just three of Switzerland's 17 goals in World Cup qualifying came from its forward line, and Shaqiri will likely need help from Nurnberg striker Josip Drmic in the attack. But Shaqiri's ability to create chances for both himself and others will define Switzerland's World Cup tournament as it hopes to return to the round of 16 for the first time since 2006.
4. Luiz Gustavo, Brazil (Wolfsburg)
Gustavo had many suitors after a strong performance in the 2013 Confederations Cup, and many expected the then-Bayern Munich midfielder to leave for another big club. Instead, Gustavo opted for Wolfsburg, and as a holding midfielder he anchored the defense of a team that went from an 11th-place finish in the 2012-13 Bundesliga campaign to a fifth-place finish (and subsequent Europa League berth) in 2013-14.
Gustavo led that Wolfsburg team with 2.7 tackles per 90 minutes, while also showing good ball control with 2.4 take-ons per 90 minutes and an 86 percent pass completion rate from his holding midfield role. A performance similar to his 2013 Confederations Cup final, where Gustavo led Brazil with four interceptions and completed 93 percent of his passes against Spain, could renew interest from major clubs during the August transfer window.
5. Ciro Immobile, Italy (Torino)
Immobile burst onto the scene this season by leading Serie A with 22 goals, and since he did not appear in World Cup qualifying for Italy, this summer will be a tremendous opportunity for the 24-year-old to prove that he can score at all levels.
Immobile earns extra credit for the fact that none of his 22 goals in Serie A came from penalties, and the striker ranked seventh in the league in total touches in the opponent's penalty area. Those attacking instincts should help an Italian team that scored just 19 goals in World Cup qualifying (13th most in UEFA), and Immobile could become a major summer transfer target if he can carry his club form over to the 2014 World Cup.
6. Joao Moutinho, Portugal (Monaco)
It is easy to lose sight of Moutinho based on the attention that Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo receives, but Moutinho led all players throughout UEFA World Cup qualifying with 10 assists, while also leading the region with 50 total chances created. Four of Moutinho's 10 assists went to Ronaldo, and the connection between these players will likely factor into Moutinho raising his profile throughout the tournament.
Similarly, Moutinho ranked second on Monaco with eight assists and 1.9 chances created per 90 minutes in the 2013-14 season, and even though the playmaking midfielder is not known for his goal-scoring prowess, his ability to move the ball and create chances for others should make him stand out in all of Portugal's games this summer.
7. Axel Witsel, Belgium (Zenit St. Petersburg)
It is no secret that Belgium is loaded with individual talent, but the player poised to make a name for himself on this team may be Zenit St. Petersburg midfielder Axel Witsel. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and Witsel were the only players to feature in every minute of the team's 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign.
Witsel was integral in Belgium's possession throughout qualifying, ranking fourth on the team with 67 touches per 90 minutes, and leading the team with 53 completed passes per 90 minutes throughout the 10-game qualification process. As a holding midfielder, Witsel ranked third on Zenit with 15 interceptions through the UEFA Champions League group stages, and he led the team with 63 completed passes per 90 minutes, so his impact as a linking player between Belgium's back and forward lines should earn him extra attention as the tournament progresses into the later stages.
8. Vedad Ibisevic, Bosnia-Herzegovina (Stuttgart)
Ibisevic does not have nearly the name recognition of fellow Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko, but Ibisevic's ability to score goals on both a domestic and international level over the past 18 months puts him in position to earn more attention this summer.
Ibisevic is a strong presence in front of goal, proving it with eight goals in World Cup qualifying and a club-high 10 goals for Stuttgart in the 2013-14 Bundesliga campaign. Moreover, his 13 percent shot increase in the opponent's penalty area from the 2012-13 Bundesliga campaign to this season indicate the striker is poised for more goal-scoring opportunities, and he will likely find them this summer while paired next to a player of Dzeko's caliber.
9. Shinji Okazaki, Japan (Mainz)
Okazaki's 15 goals in the Bundesliga this season were a dramatic improvement over the one goal he scored in 25 appearances with Stuttgart in 2012-13, and the Japanese striker led his Mainz teammates with 1.3 shots on target per 90 minutes in the 2013-14 Bundesliga campaign.
More importantly, Okazaki led his region with eight goals in World Cup qualifying and was instrumental in Japan leading the region with 16 goals throughout the process. Okazaki also led Japan with two goals in the 2013 Confederations Cup, and together with Manchester United midfielder Shinji Kagawa and AC Milan midfielder Keisuke Honda, the Japanese striker will be a pivotal piece to the team's success.
10. Jefferson Montero, Ecuador (Morelia)
Montero has been on loan stints with Villarreal, Levante and Betis since joining Morelia in 2012, but in that time he has not been able to find the right club opportunity. This summer could change Montero's outlook, as the winger ranked third in the 2014 Liga MX Clausura in take-ons; he is starting to generate more European attention from teams looking for a wide player with pace.
Montero provided three goals in 13 appearances in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, and his 10.1 take-ons per 90 minutes led all players throughout the region, so there is definitely potential for the Ecuador winger to raise his stock if the team can advance to the later rounds.
Five honorable mentions (not in any order): Eduardo Vargas, Chile (Valencia); Raphael Varane, France (Real Madrid); Giovani dos Santos, Mexico (Villarreal); Juan Guillermo Cuadrado, Colombia (Fiorentina); Vincent Aboubakar, Cameroon (Lorient)
